Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Shabab are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Shabab: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Shabab and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 62% and Al-Hazm 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 49% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.32 xG and Al-Hazm 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.321 / defence 1.008 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.476. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Al Shabab games / 46 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 58% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Shabab 2.32 / Al-Hazm 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.321 / def 1.008 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Hazm xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 25 February 2027 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 58% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Record (7 meetings): Al Shabab 6W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.44
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.63
1.31
Al-Hazm xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
10%
10.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
2%
52.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.31 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 11W 16D 18L from 45 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 20L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.09 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 73%, Al-Hazm at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Shabab and 59% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Al Shabab's games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Shabab's matches and 59% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.