Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 13:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 9 away clean sheets from 10 games (90%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 57% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.899 / defence 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / defence 0.531. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.319. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.531 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Al Shabab games / 54 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al Shabab's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Al Shabab 0.69 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.899 / def 1.014 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / def 0.531 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 13:55 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Shabab 2 - 5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defensive record (0.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
22%
4.62
32%
3.16
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
1.85
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 18.2 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.16 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 13D 19L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 35W 9D 10L from 54 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (13W 5D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 16W 3D 7L from 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.93 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 35W 9D 10L in their last 54 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.69 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 65%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Shabab) and 35% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Shabab's recent games and 35% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Shabab 2-5 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.16 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.87 / defence 0.53, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.