Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al Riyadh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.89 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 2.00 PPG return is 1.11 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 67% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.737 / defence 1.335 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.896 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.417. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Al Riyadh games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ettifaq 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 40% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Riyadh 0.86 / Al-Ettifaq 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.737 / def 1.335 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.896 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Riyadh 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.74) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
19%
5.29
24%
4.17
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.55
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
3%
28.77
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.69 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 2L across 9 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.89 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Riyadh are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 0.25 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Ettifaq 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al Riyadh) and 25% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 50%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 25% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 25% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Riyadh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.74 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 0.77, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 19% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 57%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al Riyadh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 67%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Al Riyadh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.