Al Riyadh 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Riyadh have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Riyadh lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 53% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 0.62 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.706 / defence 0.993 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.061 / defence 0.591. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.389. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.591 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Al Riyadh games / 57 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 36% | xG Al Riyadh 0.62 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.706 / def 0.993 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.061 / def 0.591 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 26 February 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Riyadh 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 15% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (5 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 0.71x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.59x — combine the two and it projects 0.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.06x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-2 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
15%
6.74
28%
3.54
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.08
1.46
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
6.74
15%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
3%
29.12
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.46 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 13W 15D 29L from 57 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 38W 9D 10L across 57 games — 2.16 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 18W 3D 7L across 28 trips, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 13W 15D 29L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 38W 9D 10L in their last 57 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.07 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 7 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Riyadh) and 36% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 54%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 36% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Riyadh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 0-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 0.62 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.46 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.71 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 0.59, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 15% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.