Al-Raed 4-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Taee travel to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Al-Raed have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City than their overall form suggests.
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Raed carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.62 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.78. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Al-Raed's 20% and Al Taee's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 44% versus Al Taee 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 44% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.10 xG and Al Taee 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.853 / defence 1.011 | Al Taee attack 0.610 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.112. Data: 10 Al-Raed games / 9 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 34% | Al Taee 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Al Taee 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al Taee's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 20% | Al Taee 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 44% | Draw 34% | Al Taee 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Al-Raed 1.10 / Al Taee 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.853 / def 1.011 | Al Taee attack 0.610 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Al Taee xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Al-Raed 4 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 44% chance of winning, Al Taee a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.85) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
44%
2.26
34%
2.96
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.78
0.69
Al Taee xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.69 for Al Taee, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.75 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
3
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Taee tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Raed 25% BTTS, Al Taee 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Raed and 50% for Al Taee.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Taee in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 25% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Raed's recent games and 50% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Taee 4-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.10 xG and Al Taee 0.69 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Al Taee attack 0.61 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 44% | Draw 34% | Al Taee 22%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 44%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.