Al-Raed 0-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 1.40 (Al Taawon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 0 for Al Taawon and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 5–3 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 42% and Al Taawon 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 47% | Al Taawon 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.57 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.919 / defence 0.991 | Al Taawon attack 0.988 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.165. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Al-Raed games / 19 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 47% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taawon 3.70. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 33% | Al Taawon 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 47% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Raed 1.57 / Al Taawon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.919 / def 0.991 | Al Taawon attack 0.988 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Taawon xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Al-Raed 0 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 47% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.92) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.76
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.71
1.14
Al Taawon xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.14 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 7W 4D 8L from 19 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 9L across 19 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.32 PPG, Al Taawon on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.58 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.89 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Taawon runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taawon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 33%, Al Taawon 89% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Al-Raed) and 78% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Raed's games and 89% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Al-Raed's recent games and 78% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.57 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Al Taawon attack 0.99 / defence 1.53, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 47% | Draw 27% | Al Taawon 27%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 47%, Al Taawon 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.32 PPG, Al Taawon 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.