Al-Raed 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Raed vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Raed welcome Al Shabab to Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 13). Kick-off is Thursday 9 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Raed — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Raed have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Al Shabab have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Al Shabab have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Despite the home advantage, Al Shabab have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Al-Raed.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Al-Raed 2–2 Al Shabab — a draw.

Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 55% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 69% | Al Shabab 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.58 xG and Al Shabab 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.889 / defence 1.225 | Al Shabab attack 0.865 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.383. Al-Raed's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 42 games and Al Shabab's last 42.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.48 | Draw 4.09 | Al Shabab 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 60% (last 10 away games).

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