Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Raed face Al-Nassr.

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Analysis

Al-Nassr make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Raed (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Al-Nassr have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al-Nassr away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr have the stronger record — 3 wins to Al-Raed's 0, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Al-Raed 0–4 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Nassr have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Raed — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 51% versus Al-Nassr 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 69% | Al-Nassr 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Raed surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Al-Nassr have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.938 / defence 1.116 | Al-Nassr attack 1.508 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.430. Al-Nassr bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Raed's projected output down. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.508, which lifts their away xG to 2.41. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 35 games and Al-Nassr's last 35.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 67%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 6.70 | Draw 5.61 | Al-Nassr 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (67%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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