Al-Raed 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Raed 1.30 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 38% versus Al-Ittihad FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 47% | Al-Ittihad FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.906 / defence 0.926 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.349 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.113. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Al-Raed games / 32 Al-Ittihad FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Raed 0.96 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.906 / def 0.926 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.349 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Ittihad FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 September 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.68
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.35
1.39
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.39 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 6D 15L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.16 PPG from 32 outings (21W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Raed's home form reads 8W 2D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.06 points per game from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.03 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 6D 5L in their last 32 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.62 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 19%, Al-Ittihad FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Raed) and 62% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Raed's recent games and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Raed 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 47%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.