Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Raed's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Al-Raed's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Raed are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.

Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Al-Raed 0–3 Al-Fateh — a Al-Fateh win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 55% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 70% | Al-Fateh 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.39 xG and Al-Fateh 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.929 / defence 1.246 | Al-Fateh attack 1.223 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.388. Al-Fateh have an above-average attack rating of 1.223, which lifts their away xG to 2.12. Al-Raed's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fateh's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 40 games and Al-Fateh's last 40.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 25% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 4.01 | Draw 4.79 | Al-Fateh 1.85. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.39 / 2.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 50% (last 10 away games).

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