Al-Raed 2-1 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Raed at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Adalah travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Adalah have recorded 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Al-Raed have the edge — a 1.05 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Raed's 20% and Al-Adalah's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Adalah trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Adalah 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Adalah 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Adalah 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.819 / defence 0.909 | Al-Adalah attack 0.646 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.086. Data: 34 Al-Raed games / 4 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Adalah 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Al-Adalah's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 20% | Al-Adalah 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Al-Raed 0.91 / Al-Adalah 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.819 / def 0.909 | Al-Adalah attack 0.646 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Al-Adalah xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Raed 2 - 1 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 40% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Adalah (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Adalah's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
40%
2.50
36%
2.81
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
1.54
0.64
Al-Adalah xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.56
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.3 | 13.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.64 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Adalah's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Raed are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Adalah in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Adalah?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Raed 50% BTTS, Al-Adalah 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Raed) and 25% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 0% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Raed's recent games and 25% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al-Adalah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Adalah 2-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Adalah 0.64 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Al-Adalah attack 0.65 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 40% | Draw 36% | Al-Adalah 24%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Adalah 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Raed scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Adalah scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.