Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Al-Nassr's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Nassr are 0.90 PPG clear of Al-Qadisiyah FC in recent Pro League fixtures (3.00 vs 2.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Qadisiyah FC, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Al-Nassr — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Qadisiyah FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% versus Al-Nassr 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Al-Nassr 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.36 xG and Al-Nassr 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.338 / defence 0.819 | Al-Nassr attack 1.485 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.439. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.485 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 64 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.13. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Al-Qadisiyah FC dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Nassr are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Nassr 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.36 / Al-Nassr 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.338 / def 0.819 | Al-Nassr attack 1.485 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Al-Nassr xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 30% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.49x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.25
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.75
Al-Nassr xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
5%
19.23
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.75 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 40W 13D 11L from 64 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 46W 8D 10L across 64 games — 2.28 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.28 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 22W 8D 2L from 32 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 23W 3D 6L across 32 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.48 scored and 0.95 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's scoring rate against Al-Nassr's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Al-Nassr in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al-Nassr
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 40W 13D 11L in their last 64 games (2.08 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 46W 8D 10L in their last 64 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.31 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al-Nassr 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 75% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 59% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 75% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 3-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.36 xG and Al-Nassr 1.75 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Al-Nassr attack 1.49 / defence 0.68, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 47%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Nassr 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.