Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fateh.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 2D.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and Al-Fateh 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Fateh 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.22 xG and Al-Fateh 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.056 | Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 4.76. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights