Al Orubah 0-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Orubah host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al-Jouf University Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Orubah — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah's home record at Al-Jouf University Stadium: 2W 0D 3L from 5 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Orubah 31% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Orubah 54% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Orubah 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Orubah attack 0.607 / defence 1.061 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.319 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.407. Al Orubah's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Al Orubah games / 47 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Orubah 14% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65%. Fair-value odds: Al Orubah 7.14 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Orubah 0% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al-Jouf University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Orubah 14% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Orubah 0.80 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Orubah attack 0.607 / def 1.061 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.319 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Al Orubah xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Orubah 0 - 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Jouf University Stadium.
What competition is Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Orubah a 14% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 65% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Orubah's attack rating (0.61) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Orubah's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
14%
6.96
21%
4.81
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.77
1.97
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
6.96
14%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
2%
49.85
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.97 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Orubah's recent record stands at 4W 1D 8L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 1L across 13 games — 2.62 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Orubah heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Orubah have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Orubah are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.62 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Orubah
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Orubah have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 11W 1D 1L in their last 13 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Orubah at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Orubah at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al Orubah or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Orubah have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Orubah
0
Draws
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Orubah have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-0 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Orubah 0%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Al Orubah) and 80% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Orubah keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Orubah have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Orubah home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Orubah play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Orubah's recent matches and 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Orubah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al Orubah's recent games and 80% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Orubah and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Orubah have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Orubah 0-5 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.80 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.61 / defence 1.06 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.94, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 14% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 65%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 54%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Orubah's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Orubah (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.