Al-Nassr 3-0 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al Orubah meet at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 5W 4D 1L at Al Awal Park at King Saud University — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Orubah's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Orubah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Orubah have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Nassr. A 0.80 PPG lead over Al Orubah (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Orubah in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al Orubah — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 60% versus Al Orubah 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Nassr 40% | Al Orubah 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.12 xG and Al Orubah 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.133 / defence 0.865 | Al Orubah attack 0.890 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.244. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Al-Nassr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Al-Nassr games / 5 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 64% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Al Orubah 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 80% | Al Orubah 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 64% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 2.12 / Al Orubah 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.133 / def 0.865 | Al Orubah attack 0.890 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al Orubah xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah?
Al-Nassr 3 - 0 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 64% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Orubah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al Orubah (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Al Orubah's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.89x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.03
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.08
0.96
Al Orubah xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
52.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.96 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 3W 2D 0L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Orubah's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Orubah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That actually lags their 2.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Orubah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al Orubah in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al Orubah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 1.67 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al Orubah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al Orubah in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 1, Al Orubah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al Orubah 2-1 Al-Nassr.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al-Nassr, 67% for Al Orubah — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Nassr and 67% for Al Orubah.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Orubah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al Orubah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al Orubah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 67% of Al Orubah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Orubah 3-0 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.12 xG and Al Orubah 0.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Orubah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Al Orubah attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 64% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 16%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 40%, Al Orubah 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Orubah's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.