Al Najma 0-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al Najma welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Najma stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Al Najma in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 68% versus Al-Nassr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 64% | Al-Nassr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.910 / defence 1.250 | Al-Nassr attack 1.297 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.369. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Al Najma games / 56 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 62%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Nassr 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 80% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Najma 1.10 / Al-Nassr 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.910 / def 1.250 | Al-Nassr attack 1.297 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Nassr?
Al Najma 0 - 5 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 17% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Nassr in?
Al Najma (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Najma's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
17%
5.79
21%
4.87
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.9%
Away win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.32
2.22
Al-Nassr xG
5.79
17%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
11%
9.19
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
2%
53.21
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.22 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Najma come into this having played 22 games, going 1W 5D 16L for 0.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.14 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Najma's home form reads 1W 3D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.20 points per game from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Najma are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.59 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 1W 5D 16L in their last 22 games (0.36 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 18W 1D 3L in their last 22 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.60 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Al Najma or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Najma have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Nassr?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 5-2 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Najma at 80%, Al-Nassr at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Najma and 60% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Najma's games and 50% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Najma's matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Najma and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Najma 0-5 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.10 xG and Al-Nassr 2.22 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Najma fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 0.81, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 62%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 64%, Al-Nassr 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.36. Form held, and they took the win. Al Najma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.