Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Kholood and Al-Nassr meet at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Nassr in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Kholood, 2 for Al-Nassr and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 57% and Al-Nassr 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 61% | Al-Nassr 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.26 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.792 / defence 1.289 | Al-Nassr attack 1.296 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.444. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 2.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Al Kholood games / 51 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 62%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Nassr 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Nassr 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Kholood 1.26 / Al-Nassr 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.792 / def 1.289 | Al-Nassr attack 1.296 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.41
Al-Nassr xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr?
Al Kholood 0 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 18% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Nassr in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.30x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.41.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
18%
5.55
20%
5.05
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.67
2.41
Al-Nassr xG
5.55
18%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
9%
11.15
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
2%
61.88
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.41 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 4D 30L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 33W 8D 10L from 51 games, 2.10 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (10W 2D 13L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 16W 3D 6L from 25 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Kholood are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.41 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 17W 4D 30L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 33W 8D 10L in their last 51 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.28 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-3 on 30 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Kholood have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
1
Draws
3
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 56%, Al-Nassr 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Kholood and 80% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Kholood's games and 72% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Kholood's matches and 80% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Kholood 0-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.26 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 62%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Nassr 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.