Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al Kholood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Kholood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al Kholood.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 65% | Al-Ittihad FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.078 / defence 1.258 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.235 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 2.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 43 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Kholood 1.40 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.078 / def 1.258 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.235 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (1.08) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
22%
4.47
24%
4.15
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.58
2.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
11%
8.85
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
3%
39.55
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.18 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 12W 9D 22L from 43 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 12L across 43 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 6W 4D 11L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Kholood are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.70 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 22W 9D 12L in their last 43 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Kholood and 57% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Kholood's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Kholood's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.