Al Kholood 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Kholood face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Kholood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 24 August 2024 at 18:10 UK time.
Form Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.091 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.233. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 0 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.96 | Draw 3.78 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Al Kholood 0 games, Al-Ittihad FC 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 18:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al Kholood 1.41 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.091 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:10 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Kholood 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.85) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Kholood's last 0 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.78
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.96
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Al Kholood (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Kholood
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al Kholood 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Kholood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Kholood 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.