Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al Okhdood travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1 for Al Okhdood and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 62% versus Al Okhdood 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 67% | Al Okhdood 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 xG and Al Okhdood 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.256 / defence 0.951 | Al Okhdood attack 0.570 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.412. Al Khaleej Saihat carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 48 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 13%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Al Okhdood 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al Okhdood 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 / Al Okhdood 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.256 / def 0.951 | Al Okhdood attack 0.570 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat 4 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 68% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (1.26) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.08
13%
7.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.84
0.77
Al Okhdood xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
7.95
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
2%
63.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.77 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 10D 22L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 11W 9D 28L from 48 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.21 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 6W 4D 13L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.90 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 11W 9D 28L in their last 48 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al Okhdood 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 35% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Okhdood in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 35% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 35% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Okhdood 4-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 xG and Al Okhdood 0.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 13%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 67%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.