Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 1D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 61% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Khaleej Saihat 62% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.020 / defence 1.128 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.463 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.413. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 64 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.020 / def 1.128 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.463 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 18% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (1.02) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.46x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
18%
5.61
20%
4.98
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.53
2.33
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.61
18%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
10%
10.31
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
2%
57.85
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 2.33 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 20W 14D 30L from 64 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 45W 14D 5L across 64 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 10W 6D 15L from 31 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 20W 8D 3L across 31 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.72 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 20W 14D 30L in their last 64 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 45W 14D 5L in their last 64 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.16 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 1-5 on 28 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.