Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 December 2025 at 14:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 4 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Fateh trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 64% and Al-Fateh 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 66% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.274 / defence 1.061 | Al-Fateh attack 0.895 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.456. Al Khaleej Saihat carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 44 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al Khaleej Saihat carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 14:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 / Al-Fateh 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.274 / def 1.061 | Al-Fateh attack 0.895 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:35 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (1.27) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.29
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.68
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
2%
48.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.38 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 9D 21L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (13W 8D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.16 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.34 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Fateh have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
6
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al-Fateh 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 57% (Al-Fateh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 62% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 57% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.30 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.27 / defence 1.06 against Al-Fateh attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 56% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 66%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.16 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.