Al Khaleej Saihat 0-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Thursday 15 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Ettifaq away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al Khaleej Saihat. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al-Ettifaq (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2023, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–1 Al-Ettifaq — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 43% versus Al-Ettifaq 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 47% | Al-Ettifaq 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.038 / defence 0.924 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.780 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.401. Al-Ettifaq's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 49 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 49.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.25 | Draw 3.50 | Al-Ettifaq 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 20 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 / Al-Ettifaq 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.038 / def 0.924 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.780 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 15 February 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 20) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.78x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 49 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.50
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.01 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 8D 26L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.27 PPG from 49 outings (16W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.27 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 9W 5D 10L across their last 24 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.02 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 15W 8D 26L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 14D 19L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
5
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 54%, Al-Ettifaq 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 38% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 27%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 47%, Al-Ettifaq 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.08 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.