Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Alinma Stadium to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at Alinma Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al Shabab (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Shabab in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 4 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 62% and Al Shabab 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Al Shabab 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.48 xG and Al Shabab 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.125 / defence 0.992 | Al Shabab attack 0.789 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.395. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad FC games / 42 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Al Shabab 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Alinma Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.48 / Al Shabab 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.125 / def 0.992 | Al Shabab attack 0.789 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Alinma Stadium.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Alinma Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 42% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.12) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.79x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
42%
2.36
33%
2.99
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
Al Shabab xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
18.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.09 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 9D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (9W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.26 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.90 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Shabab have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 30% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 30% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ittihad FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alinma Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.48 xG and Al Shabab 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Al Shabab attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 24%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 52%, Al Shabab 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.