Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027, 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Qadisiyah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 1–5 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 59% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.925 / defence 1.032 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.376 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.376 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al-Ittihad FC games / 34 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 25% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.92. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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