Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 7 January 2022 at 15:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 1D 1L from 8 home games — 2.38 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.38 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 4L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 0W, Al-Fayha 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (14 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (14 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 50% versus Al-Fayha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad FC 50% | Al-Fayha 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.53 xG and Al-Fayha 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.264 / defence 1.061 | Al-Fayha attack 0.690 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.099. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Al-Ittihad FC games / 15 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 5.26. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Al-Fayha 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 15:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.53 / Al-Fayha 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.264 / def 1.061 | Al-Fayha attack 0.690 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:55 on Friday 7 January 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.26) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.69x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.74
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.34
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.80 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 10W 2D 2L from 14 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 4L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 6W 1D 1L from 8 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.93 scored and 0.86 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Fayha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Al-Fayha in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 10W 2D 2L in their last 14 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 38%, Al-Fayha 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 38% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.53 xG and Al-Fayha 0.80 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Al-Fayha attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 19%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Fayha 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (14 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (14 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.