Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 November 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 3W 1D 1L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.67 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 56% versus Al-Fateh 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad FC 44% | Al-Fateh 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.185 / defence 1.051 | Al-Fateh attack 0.750 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.083. Data: 10 Al-Ittihad FC games / 9 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 4.76. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al-Fateh 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 / Al-Fateh 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.185 / def 1.051 | Al-Fateh attack 0.750 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:45 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.72
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.34
0.85
Al-Fateh xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.85 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 2D 1L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.11 scored and 0.78 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's scoring rate against Al-Fateh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Fateh in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 games (2.22 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 7, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 40%, Al-Fateh 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al-Ittihad FC and 20% for Al-Fateh.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 40%; Al-Fateh in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 40% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 20% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 xG and Al-Fateh 0.85 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.05 against Al-Fateh attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 21%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 44%, Al-Fateh 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.