Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ittihad FC at 2.30 PPG versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 4 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 62% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.857 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.113 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.55. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.21 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 54% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.098 / def 0.857 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.113 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 November 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.23
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.61
1.41
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
11%
9.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
2%
40.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.41 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 23W 10D 12L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 32W 6D 7L from 45 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (14W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 2D 7L from 22 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.20 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 32W 6D 7L in their last 45 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 54% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 46% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 54% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.