Al-Ittihad FC 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 8 matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 1D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 1W 0D 2L from their last 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Al-Ittihad FC 4–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.

Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 25% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.83 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / defence 0.891 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.087 / defence 1.519. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.450. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 1.519 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 38 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 8.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Draw 16% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.49 | Draw 6.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5.97. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.83 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.23 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 3 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% (last 3 away games).

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