Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 2.10 PPG versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.570 / defence 0.864 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.570 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 33 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.570 / def 0.864 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.882 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.13
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
52.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.09 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 22W 6D 5L from 33 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 7L across 33 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 2.18 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 12W 2D 2L from 16 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.82 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.61 scored and 0.88 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 22W 6D 5L in their last 33 games (2.18 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 21W 5D 7L in their last 33 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 50% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Qadisiyah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.22 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.57 / defence 0.86 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 19% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 79%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.18 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.