Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 40%, yet in-form Al-Ittihad FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 March 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% versus Al-Ittihad FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.78 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.298 / defence 1.066 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.395 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.166. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 22 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ittihad FC (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Mar 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.78 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.298 / def 1.066 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.395 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:45 on Tuesday 8 March 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.40x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 20/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
40%
2.53
23%
4.39
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
6%
15.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.73 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 11W 7D 2L from 20 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 3D 1L across 20 games — 2.55 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hilal Saudi FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 7W 2D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.25 scored and 0.85 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Ittihad FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 11W 7D 2L in their last 20 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 3D 1L in their last 20 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.11 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 67% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 78% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.78 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.40 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 38%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.