Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:25 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% versus Al-Hazm 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Hazm 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.77 xG and Al-Hazm 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.294 / defence 1.116 | Al-Hazm attack 0.595 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.195. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 18 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 21 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hazm 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Hazm 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.77 / Al-Hazm 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.294 / def 1.116 | Al-Hazm attack 0.595 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Hazm xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:25 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.29) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.02
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.57
0.79
Al-Hazm xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
38.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.79 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 9W 7D 2L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 3W 3D 12L from 18 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 28%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 7D 2L in their last 18 games (1.89 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 3W 3D 12L in their last 18 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%, Al-Hazm 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 33% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Hazm in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 33% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.77 xG and Al-Hazm 0.79 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 1.12 against Al-Hazm attack 0.59 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 15%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Hazm 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.