Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 March 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 2.00 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Fateh 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al-Fateh 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 xG and Al-Fateh 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.117 / defence 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.105 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.238. Data: 46 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 48 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 / Al-Fateh 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.117 / def 0.934 | Al-Fateh attack 1.105 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.03
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.28
Al-Fateh xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.28 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 29W 13D 4L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 18W 8D 20L from 46 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.61 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 29W 13D 4L in their last 46 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 18W 8D 20L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 32%; Al-Fateh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 xG and Al-Fateh 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Al-Fateh attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Fateh 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.