Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Kingdom Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ettifaq in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 5–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% and Al-Ettifaq 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.386 / defence 0.750 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.106 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.354. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 54 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ettifaq 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.28 / Al-Ettifaq 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.386 / def 0.750 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.106 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:25 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.11x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.09
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.40
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
10%
9.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
56.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.12 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 38W 11D 5L from 54 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 17L across 54 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 20W 4D 2L from 26 games — 2.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 13W 7D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.37 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 38W 11D 5L in their last 54 games (2.31 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 24W 13D 17L in their last 54 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.46 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%, Al-Ettifaq 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 58% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 69% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 58% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 2-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.75 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 17%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.