Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Abha at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Abha — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) versus 1.60 (Abha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Abha and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Abha in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% | Abha 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 xG and Abha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.156 / defence 0.952 | Abha attack 1.104 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.115. Data: 44 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 43 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Abha 3.85. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Abha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 / Abha 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.156 / def 0.952 | Abha attack 1.104 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Abha xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 48% chance of winning, Abha a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 1 | Abha 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Abha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.16x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.89
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.17
Abha xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.17 for Abha, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 27W 12D 4L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 15W 9D 19L from 43 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (14W 4D 3L).
On the road, Abha have gone 5W 3D 13L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.02 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 12D 4L in their last 43 games (2.16 PPG), while Abha have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Abha away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Abha in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Abha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Abha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 48% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Abha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 48% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 48% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Abha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Abha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Abha 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67 xG and Abha 1.17 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Abha attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 48% | Draw 26% | Abha 26%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%, Abha 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.