Al-Hazm 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Damac at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Damac travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 14:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Damac have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Damac's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Damac and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Damac winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 30% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 30% | Damac 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Damac 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.683 / defence 1.153 | Damac attack 0.911 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.155. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Al-Hazm games / 23 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Damac 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 30% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Hazm 1.16 / Damac 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.683 / def 1.153 | Damac attack 0.911 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Damac (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Damac xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Damac kicked off at 14:50 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Al-Hazm 0 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Damac part of?
Al-Hazm vs Damac is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 35% chance of winning, Damac a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Hazm and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.68) and Damac's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.59
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Damac xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.21 for Damac, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 3W 5D 15L from 23 games, a 0.61 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 7L across 23 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 15L in their last 23 games (0.61 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.91 PPG; Damac away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2023, when Damac won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Damac have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 36%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Hazm) and 64% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 46% of games; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 64% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Damac in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Damac edge out Al-Hazm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Hazm 0-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.16 xG and Damac 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Damac attack 0.91 / defence 1.43, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 35% | Draw 28% | Damac 37%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 30%, Damac 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.61. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.