Al-Hazm 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al-Faisaly FC at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.29 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 0L at Ar-Rass Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 2W 3D 2L from 7 outings — 1.29 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.29 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.29 (Al-Faisaly FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 43% and Al-Faisaly FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 29% | Al-Faisaly FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.46 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 1.068 / defence 1.231 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.752 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.203. Data: 7 Al-Hazm games / 7 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Faisaly FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 75% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Hazm 1.46 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 1.068 / def 1.231 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.752 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Faisaly FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Hazm 0 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 43% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.31
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.57
1.11
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.11 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 2L across 7 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.29 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 67%, Al-Faisaly FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Hazm and 0% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Faisaly FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hazm's games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hazm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC finished level at 0-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.46 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Faisaly FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 27%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 29%, Al-Faisaly FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 1.29 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.