Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al-Hazm welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ettifaq are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 3 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.98 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 0.971 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Al-Hazm games / 39 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Hazm 0.98 / Al-Ettifaq 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / def 0.971 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.970 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 May 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
26%
3.81
32%
3.09
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.26
1.28
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.76
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.28 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.21 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 2D 8L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.50 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 58%, Al-Ettifaq 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Hazm) and 53% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 32% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 47% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Hazm's matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.