Al-Hazm vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hazm (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Abha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hazm have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Abha (all games): 0W 1D 5L across 6 Pro League outings this term — 0.17 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.03 in Al-Hazm's favour (1.20 vs 0.17) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Hazm 3W, Abha 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 50% versus Abha 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 33% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.61 xG and Abha 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 0.854 | Abha attack 0.863 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Hazm games / 6 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 50% | Draw 30% | Abha 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Abha 5.26. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 50% | Abha 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 50% | Draw 30% | Abha 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hazm 1.61 / Abha 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / def 0.854 | Abha attack 0.863 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Abha xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Abha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Abha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Abha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 50% chance of winning, Abha a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hazm and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Hazm 3W | Draws 1 | Abha 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Abha (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.87x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.86x) against Al-Hazm's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.30
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.56
0.95
Abha xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.95 for Abha, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games, 0.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Hazm are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Abha away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.33 PPG; Abha away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Abha in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 13 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hazm go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Abha?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 3, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2026, when Abha 1-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Abha?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 33%, Abha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Al-Hazm) and 100% (Abha).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games; Abha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 67% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 100% of Abha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.