Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.60 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al Taawon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.99 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / defence 1.063 | Al Taawon attack 0.880 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al Taawon's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Al-Fayha games / 62 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al Taawon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Taawon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fayha 0.99 / Al Taawon 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.915 / def 1.063 | Al Taawon attack 0.880 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al Taawon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 27% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.92) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.88x) against Al-Fayha's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
27%
3.75
33%
3.07
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.27
1.28
Al Taawon xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.28 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 19W 19D 24L from 62 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 14L across 62 games — 1.77 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 8W 11D 12L from 31 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 16W 10D 5L across 31 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.53 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 31W 17D 14L in their last 62 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 42%, Al Taawon 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 42% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Taawon in 39%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 55% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 42% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Al-Fayha and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.99 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Al Taawon attack 0.88 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 27% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 41%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 55%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.