Al-Fayha 2-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al Riyadh travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 16:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Riyadh — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Riyadh in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Riyadh 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Riyadh trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 60% and Al Riyadh 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 58% | Al Riyadh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al Riyadh 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.851 / defence 1.487 | Al Riyadh attack 1.166 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.295. Data: 38 Al-Fayha games / 38 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 20% | Al Riyadh 57%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.35 | Draw 5.00 | Al Riyadh 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Al Riyadh (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 20% | Al Riyadh 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Fayha 1.38 / Al Riyadh 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.851 / def 1.487 | Al Riyadh attack 1.166 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Al Riyadh xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 16:25 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 23% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 57% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
23%
4.37
20%
5.01
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.62
2.25
Al Riyadh xG
4.37
23%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
11%
9.46
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
2%
41.38
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 2.25 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh's form line: 10W 12D 16L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.18 PPG, Al Riyadh on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.08 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Riyadh in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Riyadh's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 47%, Al Riyadh 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Al-Fayha and 68% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 42% of games; Al Riyadh in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al-Fayha's games and 68% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Al-Fayha's matches and 68% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Riyadh 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al Riyadh 2.25 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Riyadh landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 1.49 against Al Riyadh attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 23% | Draw 20% | Al Riyadh 57%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 58%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.