Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al-Raed travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.67 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Raed — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 1.57. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.67 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.57 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Raed in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Raed trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 67% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.73 xG and Al-Raed 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.004 / defence 0.904 | Al-Raed attack 1.153 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.298. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Fayha games / 7 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Raed 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 67% | Al-Raed 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fayha 1.73 / Al-Raed 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.004 / def 0.904 | Al-Raed attack 1.153 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al-Raed xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:05 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 43% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (1.00) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.34
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.08
1.35
Al-Raed xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
5%
20.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.35 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.67 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.67 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 67%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Fayha's games and 50% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.73 xG and Al-Raed 1.35 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Al-Raed attack 1.15 / defence 1.48, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 43% | Draw 30% | Al-Raed 27%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.67 PPG, Al-Raed 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.