Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Al-Fayha 2W, Al-Ettifaq 4W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 48% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.78 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.923 / defence 0.977 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.875 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.437. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Al-Fayha games / 59 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 3.85. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Ettifaq 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fayha 1.78 / Al-Ettifaq 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.923 / def 0.977 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.875 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 50% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.88x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
50%
2.02
25%
4.02
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.01
1.23
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
4%
23.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.23 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 18D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.51 PPG from 59 outings (25W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.51 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 9W 11D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.59 points per game from 29 outings (13W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 14D 20L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al-Ettifaq 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Fayha) and 59% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 66% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.78 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 26%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.