Al-Fateh 2-3 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al Taee at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 2 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Al-Fateh are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Al Taee have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al-Fateh's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taee have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 43% versus Al Taee 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 51% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.92 xG and Al Taee 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.163 / defence 0.888 | Al Taee attack 0.856 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.151. Data: 47 Al-Fateh games / 48 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taee 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Al Taee lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Fateh carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fateh 20% | Al Taee 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.92 / Al Taee 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.163 / def 0.888 | Al Taee attack 0.856 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Taee xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 2 March 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Al-Fateh 2 - 3 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 62% chance of winning, Al Taee a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 3W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.47
16%
6.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.80
0.88
Al Taee xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
6.23
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
42.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.88 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 9D 20L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (18W 5D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.34 PPG, Al Taee on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fateh's home form reads 10W 3D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (6W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.19 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 18W 5D 24L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Taee in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Taee go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
6
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Taee have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fateh 35% BTTS, Al Taee 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Fateh) and 48% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taee in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 35% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 48% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 2-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.92 xG and Al Taee 0.88 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Taee outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Al Taee attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 16%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Al Taee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 51%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.34 PPG, Al Taee 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.