Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Qadisiyah FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al Fateh club stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Thursday 20 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Fateh (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 2D 6L at Al Fateh club stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fateh lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 60% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 49% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.68 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 1.352 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.465 — the away xG of 2.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 5% | Draw 15% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 20.00 | Draw 6.67 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (80%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 5% | Draw 15% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fateh 0.68 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / def 1.352 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.465 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
2.84
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
47%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 May 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 5% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 80% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.47x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.84.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.4%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
5%
20.16
15%
6.87
80%
1.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.51
2.84
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
20.16
5%
Home win
6.87
15%
Draw
1.24
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
6%
17.06
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
0%
–
41%
2.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 4.6 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 2.84 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 10W 13D 22L from 45 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 5L across 45 games — 2.27 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 10L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record stands at 17W 2D 3L across 22 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.42 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 22L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 5L in their last 45 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al-Fateh and 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fateh's games and 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Fateh's matches and 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.