Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Kholood (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Al Fateh club stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 3 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Kholood have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Kholood are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al Kholood 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 46% | Al Kholood 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.37 xG and Al Kholood 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 1.250 | Al Kholood attack 0.921 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al Kholood 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Kholood 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 30% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.37 / Al Kholood 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / def 1.250 | Al Kholood attack 0.921 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al Kholood xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 30% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al Kholood 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.92x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
30%
3.32
29%
3.45
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.98
1.61
Al Kholood xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.61 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 10W 13D 20L from 43 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 22L across 43 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.05 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 9L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.23 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.24 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 57%, Al Kholood 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fateh) and 62% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Kholood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 52% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al-Fateh's matches and 62% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.