Al-Fateh 1-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Al Fateh Club Stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Kholood have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.67 for Al Kholood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 33% versus Al Kholood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al Kholood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Kholood 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.029 / defence 1.212 | Al Kholood attack 0.687 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.278. Data: 40 Al-Fateh games / 6 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Kholood 4.00. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Kholood 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 1.64 / Al Kholood 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.029 / def 1.212 | Al Kholood attack 0.687 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Kholood xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 51% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.69x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.70
1.06
Al Kholood xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.06 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 1W 0D 5L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 4L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.67 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Al-Fateh are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.17 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 67%, Al Kholood 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fateh) and 33% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Kholood in 33%; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 33% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al Kholood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Fateh and Al Kholood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Kholood 1.06 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Al Kholood attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al Kholood 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 0.50 PPG, Al Kholood 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.