Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 April 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 1.70 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 52% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Khaleej Saihat 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.141 / defence 1.215 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.432 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.341. Data: 51 Al-Fateh games / 21 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 65% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 65% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Fateh 1.92 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.141 / def 1.215 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.432 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 6 April 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 65% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.14) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.38
12%
8.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.62
0.70
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
8.33
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
56.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.70 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 2D 9L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 5W 2D 14L from 21 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Khaleej Saihat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.71 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 24%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 2D 9L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 5W 2D 14L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.60 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 6, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fateh 40% BTTS, Al Khaleej Saihat 10%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 30% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 10% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 30% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.92 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.70 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.14 / defence 1.22 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.43 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 65% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 12%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Khaleej Saihat 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.