Al-Fateh 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 48%, yet the head-to-head data favours Al-Fateh — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fateh's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Ettifaq's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.30 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Al-Fateh hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2023, ended Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Fateh win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Fateh and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / defence 1.153 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.548. Al-Ettifaq bring a tight defence (rating 0.740, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Fateh's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 55 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 55.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.00 | Draw 3.66 | Al-Ettifaq 2.10. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al-Fateh 1.01 / Al-Ettifaq 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / def 1.153 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ettifaq xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fateh's last 55 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.66
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.50
1.49
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 11D 22L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.40 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 8D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 22W 11D 22L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won Al-Fateh 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 54%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Fateh) and 32% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 64% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.49 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 0.74, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.