Al-Fateh 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.30 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Al-Ettifaq have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
The historical record gives Al-Fateh a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / defence 1.153 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.548. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Al-Fateh games / 55 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 2.08. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 60% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.01 / Al-Ettifaq 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / def 1.153 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.834 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Ettifaq xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fateh 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.66
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.50
1.49
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.49 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 22W 11D 22L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 19W 16D 20L from 55 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.40 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 8D 12L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 22W 11D 22L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.21 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 54%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Fateh) and 32% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.49 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 0.74, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 48%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Al-Ettifaq 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.