Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 March 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fateh — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Fateh 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 1–4 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Fateh 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Fateh 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.12 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.953 / defence 1.001 | Al-Fateh attack 0.784 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.151. Data: 24 Al-Faisaly FC games / 24 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Faisaly FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fateh (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al-Fateh 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.12 / Al-Fateh 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.953 / def 1.001 | Al-Fateh attack 0.784 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Faisaly FC 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
41%
2.47
30%
3.29
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.90
Al-Fateh xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 0.90 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Faisaly FC's recent record stands at 5W 10D 9L from 24 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 9L across 24 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Faisaly FC on 1.04 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Faisaly FC have managed 5W 5D 2L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.50 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 5W 10D 9L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 58%, Al-Fateh 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 25% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 33%; Al-Fateh in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 42% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 25% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Faisaly FC edge out Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.12 xG and Al-Fateh 0.90 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 41% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al-Fateh 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Faisaly FC 1.04 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Faisaly FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.